MERIT News丨RTHK Interview with CEO Haoyu Wang: China and the U.S. Drive Global AI Competition, Benefiting Both Through Healthy Rivalry
01 Economic Transition: From "Growth" to "New Quality Productive Forces"
Reflecting on the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021–2025), Wang notes that while GDP stabilized at approximately 5%, the internal structure shifted significantly toward high-end manufacturing.
Sector Performance: High-tech and equipment manufacturing grew at 9.2% and 9.4% respectively, far outstripping overall industrial growth.
Key Drivers: New energy vehicles, industrial robotics, and integrated circuits have become the primary engines of economic optimization.
02 U.S.-China Relations: Competitive Interdependence
Wang describes the current state of U.S.-China trade as "limited cooperation amidst structural competition."
Three Major Risks for 2026:
Tariff Volatility: Potential restarts of trade protectionism under a new U.S. administration, specifically targeting semiconductors and green energy.
Supply Chain Decoupling: Multinational firms are proactively diversifying production outside China to mitigate future friction.
Non-Tariff Barriers: Increased use of investment screenings, entity lists, and export controls.
03 The AI Revolution: A Global Battlefield
AI has emerged as the central arena for national strategic competition, focusing on three dimensions:
Application Layer: The penetration of LLMs and AI Agents into the real economy to create direct commercial value.
Compute & Chips: A fierce struggle for dominance over high-performance GPUs and domestic infrastructure.
Data Sovereignty: The end of borderless data flow, replaced by heightened focus on data security and cross-border regulations.
Outlook: While market bubbles exist, Wang remains bullish on the "15th Five-Year Plan" as the period where AI matures from a technical concept into a widespread commercial reality.
04 Demographic Shifts & Consumption Rebalancing
The decline in birth rates (falling below 8 million in 2025) is driving a profound restructuring of the consumer market.
Short-term Pressure: Maternal, infant, and educational sectors face immediate contraction.
Long-term Opportunities:
Silver Economy: Growing demand for elderly care, healthcare, and wellness management.
New Lifestyles: Rapid growth in the Pet Economy and Single Economy as household structures shrink.
05 Asset Allocation & Market Outlook
Wang identifies 2026 as a year of "structural bull markets" rather than universal growth.
A-Shares and HK Stocks: Favored due to recovering corporate earnings and PPI turning positive. High-conviction sectors include AI, semiconductors, and robotics.
U.S. Markets: Defined as a "Grand IPO Year" for hard-tech firms (e.g., SpaceX, CoreWeave). While sentiment is high, investors should beware of valuation bubbles in companies with unproven profitability.
Commodities & Hedging:
Copper: Highly recommended due to supply constraints and demand from the electrification of AI and EV sectors.
Gold/Silver: Rising gold prices reflect accumulating USD credit risk. Silver is viewed as a high-volatility alternative for those seeking greater price elasticity.
06 National Strategic Focus (15th Five-Year Plan)
Investment flows are expected to align with three tiers of state focus:
Strategic Emerging Industries: New materials, bio-medicine, and green tech (ready for commercialization).
Future Industries: Quantum tech, fusion, brain-computer interfaces, and humanoid robotics (long-term incubation).
Intelligent Transformation: Digital upgrades of China’s existing massive industrial base.
