MERIT News丨In Conversation with World-Class Macro Strategy Managers


01 The Strategic Macro Shift


Rob Citrone, a veteran macro investor and protégé of Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management, posits that the global economy is not merely facing market volatility, but a fundamental regime change.

  • End of an Era: The 15-year cycle of ultra-loose monetary policy (2009–2024) has concluded.

  • The New Normal: Defined by structurally higher volatility, desynchronized global economic cycles, and the deep integration of geopolitics into asset pricing.

  • The Verdict: The passive "buy-and-hold the index" strategy will face severe challenges in this new environment.


02 Geopolitical Edge: Beyond the Terminal


Citrone’s assessment of the Iran conflict is direct: the intensity and duration will exceed market expectations, and a diplomatic window is currently non-existent.

  • Structural Pressure: The risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will remain a structural weight on global markets.

  • Information Moat: His convictions are rooted in a 30-year private network, including direct contact with military and political leadership in Israel and advisors frequently traveling to Iran, providing an information advantage that public terminals cannot replicate.


03 Structural Macro Views


  1. The US Dollar: A Structural Decline

    • Despite short-term support from safe-haven demand due to the Iran conflict, the long-term outlook for the USD is bearish.

    • Drivers: Expanding fiscal deficits, political polarization, and a global rebalancing of capital are eroding the greenback’s long-term appeal.

  2. Emerging Markets: High-Conviction Opportunities

    • Citrone identifies Asia (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan) as having the strongest earnings recovery momentum.

    • Latin America (specifically Brazil) offers event-driven opportunities, while U.S. equities are expected to underperform globally given their current valuations.

  3. China: A Differentiated Approach

    • While the real estate drag will take years to digest, structural opportunities in Technology and Defense offer long-term value on a 5-year horizon.


04 Merit’s Perspective


Direct engagement with top-tier managers like Citrone is central to Merit’s strategy of identifying structural opportunities in complex environments.

  • Regime Readiness: As the market becomes more difficult to navigate, the focus shifts from passive exposure to multidimensional research.

  • Value Creation: In a regime of higher volatility, the most valuable returns are found by those who can identify the shift in macro "regimes" before they are fully priced in.